Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff WriterJun 21, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Fifteen years ago this month, at the end of June 2009, the National League wild-card standings were memorably tight. Then, there were only two wild-card teams per league and the difference between the second entrant and the team in ninth place was just 3½ games. After being informed of those standings from 15 years ago, a current NL executive chuckled as he considered this season's wild-card race.
"2009 can hold my beer," he said. "This is going to be crazy."
The parity in the NL is striking -- so much so that some would call it mediocrity. Just four teams are above .500 (the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves). Meanwhile, the next nine teams are separated by just 1½ games entering the second to last weekend of June. Only the Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins are far enough from the postseason race to already be considered clear subtracters at the MLB trade deadline, which comes July 30.
The expanded MLB playoff system, now in its third year, has given hope to many organizations eyeing the two additional wild-card spots in each league, but opinions in the sport still differ on what these teams should do over the next five weeks.
"I just think there is so much incentive to add, if you're close under the new playoff rules that you could see a lot of teams trying to add pieces -- and at the very least, not subtracting," one executive said.
But another exec saw it differently: "I actually do think with the combination of an extra playoff team, draft lottery and teams very much valuing prospects, we are getting to a point where there might be a disconnect between buyers and sellers. On one hand, the few sellers with elite players would hold all of the cards, but on the other you might have a lot of soft-buyers who aren't interested in breaking the bank to add a few percentage points to their odds."
As the San Francisco Giants battle the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Mets face the Chicago Cubs (7 p.m. ET on "Sunday Night Baseball") this weekend in series that could shake up the NL standings, ESPN asked six MLB executives and scouts to handicap what the middle nine teams will do at the trade deadline. Who is likely to add? Who is likely to subtract or stand still?
The sure adders: St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds
The phrase "life cycle of a team" was used several times by executives discussing these organizations. For two of them, that could also be referring to the life cycle of their front offices: John Mozeliak has been a top decision-maker for the Cardinals since 2007 while AJ Preller has been the same for the Padres since 2014. While both have been to the playoffs fairly recently -- San Diego made it to the NLCS in 2022 and St. Louis was a wild-card team the same year -- our insiders don't see either further setting themselves back at the deadline.
"Look at the core players on both teams," one scout said. "Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado aren't getting any younger. Neither is Manny Machado or even Yu Darvish. Those two teams need to get in."
Arizona doesn't face that kind of playoffs-or-bust pressure coming off of an unexpected World Series appearance, but the Diamondbacks are built to win now after committing more than $160 million during free agency.
"I fully expect Arizona to earn a wild-card berth," one scout said. "They probably won't add in dramatic fashion -- they did that last offseason -- but ownership has shown they want to win so if there is a need, they'll address it."
Unlike the other three teams in this tier that all have played in recent Octobers, the Reds landed in this tier because of their need to end a lengthy playoff drought.
Cincinnati hasn't been to the playoffs in a 162-game season since 2013 and spent like a team looking to contend during the offseason after missing the postseason by just two games in 2023. Yes, the Reds are in last place in the NL Central right now, but this was a popular breakout pick heading into the season, and our insiders expect Cincinnati to go for it at the deadline.
On the fence: Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants
The Cubs have already made smaller moves, which indicate they will be looking to add come July 30, but it remains to be seen how aggressive they will be if their play doesn't improve -- especially given their minus-14 run differential. The team's highly rated farm system is getting closer to producing, so the Cubs' front office has a decision to make: trade from that group this summer to win now or try to develop a long-term star. The team's performance in July will likely provide an answer.
"They went on a run last year, which made the decision easy for the front office," one executive said. "Their starting pitching is pretty good, so trying to get in as a wild-card team and going on a run could make sense."
Like the Reds in the tier above, the Pirates are trying to end a lengthy playoff drought -- having last made the postseason in 2015 -- but Pittsburgh's unproven roster makes its deadline direction less clear. Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller bring hope that the top of the rotation can anchor a playoff contender. But is 2024 the season to go for it?
"It might be a year early for Pittsburgh," one scout said. "Besides, if they add, it'll be on the margins. I don't see them selling big though."
"Who knows?" might be the best way to sum up what our experts thought of the Giants' most likely deadline plans. Under Farhan Zaidi, San Francisco has kept things close to the vest. The Giants have landed in the muddled middle because they are void of stars in a competitive NL West that includes fellow wild-card competitors in the Diamondbacks and Padres, all of them well behind the division-leading Dodgers.
"Maybe San Francisco does what Seattle likes to do," one scout said. "A little buying and selling, but I'm not sure of their direction just yet."
Likely to subtract: New York Mets, Washington Nationals
Our insiders acknowledged that the Mets and Nationals are two of the hottest teams in the NL -- and that the status of both could change if they keep playing like this -- but also believed both are bound to cool off soon.
"Wait a week," one scout said. "Both could be back in eighth or ninth place."
The Mets might be the easier call here. David Stearns is in his first year in New York and has an aging roster with enough pending free agents, headlined by Pete Alonso, to produce a fruitful deadline. Of course, it's New York and if the Mets go on a July run, Stearns might be forced to change directions with hopes of securing a wild-card spot.
The Nationals are caught in between as they continue to rebuild after their 2019 World Series title. They have a young core of hitters without a fully formed pitching staff. If the Nats do decide to trade away veterans, they have one player sure to draw interest from across the league.
"[Closer] Kyle Finnegan has been fantastic," one scout said. "I think the Nationals are a year away. Trading him makes sense."
No matter how the next five weeks play out for each of the nine clubs battling for the two final NL wild-card spots, having this many teams within striking distance midway through the season is going to make for an intriguing trade deadline.
"I think there could be 13 buyers," one executive said. "Maybe not exactly 13, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was close to that number when all is said and done."
