David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior WriterJun 13, 2024, 11:00 AM
Selecting the 2024 All-Star teams won't be quite as difficult as solving The New York Times crossword puzzle, but it might bring a similar sense of exasperation.
For starters, consider what's happened to some of the game's biggest stars: Ronald Acuna Jr. is out for the season after ACL surgery; Spencer Strider is out for the season with Tommy John surgery; and Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II are all off to slow starts
And that's just from the Atlanta Braves. Other position players are scuffling too, such as Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Bo Bichette, Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena, Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman and Yandy Diaz. Players who have appeared on the injured list at some point this season include Gerrit Cole, Mike Trout, Luis Robert Jr., Trea Turner, Edwin Diaz, Justin Verlander, Blake Snell, Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish, among others.
Now throw in that pitchers have dominated -- the leaguewide batting average is just .240 and home runs are down from 2023 -- and it's not easy to fill some of the positions, as players are not putting up what we might usually consider All-Star numbers.
With about a month to go before the All-Star Game in Arlington, Texas, let's see how the All-Star rosters for both leagues are shaping up. The usual rules apply: 32 players per team, broken down into 20 position players and 12 pitchers (at least three relievers), with one representative from each MLB club. Players will be considered for the position they're listed at on the official All-Star ballot.
American League
Top debates
When doing this exercise, I first write in the automatics: This includes the nine starters, the reserves who are the clear backups at their position, five starting pitchers and three relievers. In this initial run-through, I filled in 25 of the 32 positions with four teams still unaccounted for (the Rays, Blue Jays, Twins and Mariners). These were the three toughest arguments:
Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr. vs. Gunnar Henderson
The early AL MVP race feels like a three-man battle among Aaron Judge, Witt and Henderson (with Juan Soto behind those three). Unfortunately for All-Star purposes, Witt and Henderson play the same position, and only one can start. If you throw in Corey Seager -- last year's AL MVP runner-up who got off to a slow start this season but has since heated up -- it reminds me of the old debate from the late 1990s and early 2000s, when you had Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra all battling for All-Star honors at shortstop.
This one is essentially a coin flip. They're close in WAR and both have excellent defensive metrics, though Henderson has the edge in home runs and efficiency while Witt has more stolen bases and a better batting average. One advantage for Witt is in a couple of the deep analytic stats, such as win probability added and situational wins added. Both have killed it in high-leverage situations, but Witt has had a few more opportunities and rates higher. It also feels like anytime the Royals have had a big win, Witt has usually played a key role; he certainly has less help around him than Henderson has with the Orioles. There is also a sense of dynamism to Witt's all-around game. He gets the slightest of nods.
(I just realized: Neither is guaranteed to start, as Rangers fans might very well vote in Seager considering how well they showed up to the ballot box last year when five Rangers started the All-Star Game in Seattle.)
Catcher: Adley Rutschman vs. Salvador Perez
It's another Orioles-Royals showdown, although I think this one is a little easier. Both have been outstanding, although each is doing it in slightly different ways than we're used to seeing from them. Rutschman has sacrificed some of his patience for more power (and a higher average). The end result is basically the same, although I'd like to see him get back closer to the nearly 1-1 walk-to-strikeout ratio he had last season.
Perez, meanwhile, has improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 7-to-1 last season down to 2-to-1, as he's cut down his strikeout rate nearly 7% while walking more often. The end result is a .381 OBP for a hitter with a career .304 OBP. Both have played quite a bit at other positions -- Rutschman at DH, Perez at first base and DH -- so have caught about the same number of innings (Rutschman has slight edge). It's another coin flip, but I have Rutschman earning his first career All-Star start.
First base: Josh Naylor vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Ryan Mountcastle
The revolving door at first base in the AL continues. Guerrero had looked like he'd become the annual starter here in 2021, and he did start again in 2022, but Yandy Diaz started last year -- the 11th different starter in 12 years. And it's not like fans are choosing from a position of deep depth with multiple good choices -- that's definitely not the case here. Naylor got off to a great start, but his average and OBP have nosedived over the past month. Guerrero is getting on base but not hitting for much power. Mountcastle has hit for more power than Guerrero and is the better defender. Let's go with him as the starter for now and leave the backup slot empty as we fill in the rest of the roster.
Starters
Here's my AL starting lineup:
C - Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
1B - Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
2B - Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
3B - Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
SS - Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
OF - Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
OF - Juan Soto, New York Yankees
OF - Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros
DH - Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
SP - Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
Skubal -- my preseason Cy Young pick -- has been the pitcher with the best combination of ERA, wins and strikeout dominance. The outfield is an easy call, as the AL crop of outfielders is pretty thin with the likes of J-Rod, Robert, Garcia, Arozarena and Trout all struggling or injured.
Reserves
An asterisk denotes my "non-automatic" choices:
C - Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
1B - *Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
2B - Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
3B - Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
3B - *Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays
SS -- Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
SS -- *Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
OF - Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
OF -- *Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays
OF -- *Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
DH - Brent Rooker, Oakland Athletics
Rooker gets the nod over Cleveland utility player David Fry, who has been outstanding but hasn't played as much. Paredes is the Rays' sole representative but is having a solid season nonetheless. Good luck finding three outfielders. Kwan has been great but did miss a month, while Varsho earns a spot with great defense and some power. Seager gets the nod over a deserving Anthony Volpe of the Yankees. The Orioles' Jordan Westburg gets squeezed out at third base.
Pitchers
SP - Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles
SP - Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox
SP - Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
SP - Luis Gil, New York Yankees
SP - Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
SP - Garret Crochet, Chicago White Sox
SP -- *Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
SP -- *Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
RP - Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
RP - Mason Miller, Oakland A's
RP - Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
Pretty straightforward here. Anderson and Crochet represent the Angels and White Sox but are deserving candidates (Anderson leads AL pitchers in bWAR while Crochet has been more dominant than teammate Erick Fedde, who was also worthy of consideration). The three closers were easy calls. That left two spots, and we still needed somebody from the Mariners and Twins. The Mariners are in first place but have no clear All-Stars. Gilbert gets the nod over reliever Andres Munoz; when in doubt, we'll go with the starting pitcher. That leaves us with Ryan to represent the Twins (Ryan Jeffers would be their best position-player candidate, but he's on the ballot as a catcher). Detroit's Jack Flaherty and Kansas City's Brady Singer and Cole Ragans are among those who get squeezed out of the pitching staff.
National League
Top debates
In the initial run-through for the NL, I filled in 22 of the 32 positions with six teams unaccounted for (the Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Pirates, Giants and Rockies). Several of the NL starters were pretty easy locks: William Contreras at catcher, Mookie Betts at shortstop with Ketel Marte quietly moving into second in the NL in bWAR behind him, and Alec Bohm at the top of a third-base group that is usually deep but is seeing several big stars off to slow starts. Here are the top three debates for this group:
First base: Bryce Harper vs. Freddie Freeman
The two future Hall of Famers are neck and neck. Harper has the edge in home runs and RBIs, but Freeman has more doubles and the higher OBP. Interestingly enough, Harper not only hasn't started an All-Star Game since 2018, but he's been selected only once since then. Here's what happened:
2019: He was hitting .253/.370/.470 with 16 home runs at the break, but that was the year of big offensive numbers, and Harper's numbers paled in comparison to starters Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger and Acuña. The backup outfielders -- voted in by the players -- were Charlie Blackmon (.330, 20 HRs), David Dahl (.308, 12 HRs) and Jeff McNeil (.350, 7 HRs).
2020: No All-Star Game.
2021: Harper would go on to win his second MVP Award with a huge second half but was hitting .282/.379/.520 with 15 home runs and 34 RBIs at the break. The elected starters were Acuña (.283, 24 HRs), Nick Castellanos (.331, 18 HRs) and Jesse Winker (.301, 19 HRs). Harper finished just eighth in the voting. Acuña was injured, so Bryan Reynolds (.302, 16 HRs) started the game. Mookie Betts (.256, 13 HRs) and Kyle Schwarber (.253, 25 HRs) were the player-elected backups along with Reynolds, while Soto (.283, 11 HRs) and Chris Taylor (.277, 10 HRs) also made it as Betts and Schwarber were injured.
2022: OK, we might have cheated a bit here. Harper was the elected starter at DH, but he broke a thumb on June 25 when he was hit by a pitcher and couldn't play.
2023: Harper missed April following offseason Tommy John surgery and didn't hit for much power in the first half.
Anyway, at the moment, I have Harper by an eyelash over Freeman for 2024.
Designated hitter: Shohei Ohtani vs. Marcell Ozuna
Ohtani looked like a possible MVP candidate after a torrid April that included 22 extra-base hits, but he's slumped a bit lately. Ozuna, who has carried what has otherwise been a surprisingly lackluster Atlanta offense, has now passed Ohtani in OPS. Ozuna also leads the NL in home runs and RBIs. Ohtani, however, holds the edge in WAR thanks to more plate appearances and a small advantage in baserunning. Ohtani will certainly win the fan vote, but this should be a tight race.
Outfield: Umm ...
OK, this is a little awkward. When I ran through the NL outfielder stats, only one player stood out, and he is a huge surprise: Jurickson Profar, who was one of the worst-hitting regulars in baseball last season with the Rockies (and briefly with the Padres). This season, he's hitting over .300 and leads the NL in OBP. After that, it gets a little murky. Fernando Tatis Jr. gets the second nod; he's been fine, but nothing like his 2019-2021 numbers. I went with Teoscar Hernandez as my third starter. The reserve choices are almost nonexistent.
What's happened to lead to this? Well, Acuña got injured. Betts has moved to the infield. Soto moved to the AL. Harper is long gone from the outfield. Carroll has struggled to get his OPS over .600. Bellinger has been just OK and missed time with an injury. Seiya Suzuki missed a big chunk of time. Michael Harris II hasn't hit much. Castellanos and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. made it last year and both have sub-.300 OBPs this year. I've never seen such a leaguewide lack of stars in the outfield.
Starters
Here's my NL starting lineup:
C - William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers
1B - Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
2B - Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
3B - Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
SS - Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
OF - Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres
OF - Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
OF - Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
DH - Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
SP - Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies
The other debate would be at starting pitcher, and my two finalists would be Phillies teammates Suarez and Zack Wheeler. If we're predicting the Cy Young winner, I'll stick with Wheeler -- my preseason pick, by the way (another pat on the back). He's certainly the bigger star and bigger name. But that's not really the way things work anymore. Suarez has had a first two months for the ages. Let's see if he keeps it going and becomes one of the unlikeliest All-Star starting pitchers in history.
Reserves
Once again, an asterisk denotes my "non-automatic" choices.
C - Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
1B - Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
1B -- *Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
2B - Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers
2B -- *Luis Arraez, San Diego Padres
3B - *Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
SS - Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
OF - *Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
OF -- *Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
OF -- *Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
DH - Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
Turang's all-around game gives him the nod as the backup at second, and De La Cruz is a jolt of energy and excitement with solid stats to back it up. We needed a backup third baseman, and with Machado, Arenado and Riley all scuffling, Max Muncy injured and Ke'Bryan Hayes not having the breakout I anticipated, McMahon gets the nod over Matt Chapman (and gives us a Rockies rep). Chisholm and Nimmo haven't been great, but we need somebody from the Marlins and Mets. Yelich did miss a month but has otherwise torn it up, so he's my third outfielder. The final spots go to Arraez and his league-leading batting average and Walker, who is having another solid season for Arizona. The biggest snubs here might be a couple of shortstops in Willy Adames of the Brewers and rookie Masyn Winn of the Cardinals.
Pitchers
SP - Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
SP - Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
SP - Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
SP - Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
SP -- *Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
SP -- *Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
SP - *Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
RP - Robert Suarez, San Diego Padres
RP - Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
RP - Matt Strahm, Philadelphia Phillies
RP -- *Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals
There are a lot of pitching candidates, so I left four slots open once I got past my four automatic starters and three relievers. Strahm is the surprise here since he's not a closer, but he's allowed two earned runs all season with a sparkling strikeout-to-walk ratio. Webb represents the Giants as he's putting together another stellar season. We need somebody from the Pirates, and they do have two strong candidates in Keller and hard-throwing rookie Jared Jones (sorry, fellow rookie Paul Skenes hasn't pitched enough to merit consideration). Jones has been getting hit harder of late after a blazing start, so let's go with Keller. Finnegan is the best choice for the Nationals with Trevor Williams injured.
That leaves one final spot, and it came down to three Braves: Reynaldo Lopez, Max Fried and Sale. Lopez has the sterling ERA and certainly would be a fine choice, but I went with Sale, who has been the most dominant of three with an 8.36-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Plus, for what it's worth, Sale has the better win-loss record, which does feel like it should factor into something like an All-Star selection.
